The Internet is Truly Awesome (Leonard Bernstein Mahler edition).

David Denby wrote a nice piece in the New Yorker a little over a year ago about this ten most "perfect" orchestra recordings of all time.  Coming in at Number 5 was Leonard Bernstein's Mahler 7 (the second time through) with the New York Philharmonic. (FWIW, I know seven of his choices, and love them all).

If one looks it up on the NY Phil's website, one finds a link to Lenny's marked up score of the piece, allowing us to see, among other things, directions from the composer he really wanted to make sure got  emphasis.  As such, the internet allows us to see how Leonard Bernstein went about thinking about one of the great, quirky pieces of all time, at any time we wish.

This is truly awesome.

John Roberts is supposed to be a smart man.

But he makes a specious argument.  He says that because in the presence of Voting Rights Acts, there is no disparity in voter turn-out, there is no need for a Voting Rights Act.  Huh?

Are models that assume linear utility useful?

I just saw a paper on how the desire of households to match with particular houses could explain housing market dynamics--in particular why house prices are more volatile than incomes.

Performing such an exercise is very difficult, and requires simplifying assumptions.  One of the most important simplifying assumptions in the paper is that utility is linear--that people value their last unit of consumption just as much as their first.  This assumption is clearly wrong--we know that marginal utility diminishes in consumption.  Yet the assumption was necessary to make the model tractable.

So do we know more about the world because of the model or not?  I really don't know.

If in 1987 you bought the average house in the average place...

…you have about broken even relative to the consumer price index. The Case-Shiller National Index for March 1987 was 62.03; for March 2013, it was 136.70.  The Consumer Price Index in March 1987 was 112.7; in March 2013 it was 232.77.  So the Case-Shiller Index has risen by  120.4 percent in 26 years; the CPI has risen by 106.5 percent.  So in inflation adjusted terms, the average house in the average place has risen by 13 percent over the past 26 years, or a little less than half of one percent per year.

[At the suggestion of Austin Kelly, I looked to see what would happen if I used the unit-weighted FHFA index instead of the value-weighted Case-Shiller index.  I found that based on FHFA, real house prices rose by 11 percent since 1991 (the first year for which data are available), or a little less than .5 percent per year.  So even though the index is different, the result is the same.]

Reposted from Forbes.

Could someone explain the market failure that protecting car dealerships solves?

The Wall Street Journal has a good story today about how car dealerships are (successfully) lobbying legislatures to ban Tesla Motors from marketing their cars directly to consumers.  GOP legislators, who get the willies about regulation that actually solves real problems, are on board with supporting protectionist policies for auto dealerships.

Does anyone really think that the industrial organization of the automobile retail industry works well?  My family buys a car every five years or so, and our experience is that no one tries to exploit asymmetric information like auto dealers.  I have lots of reasons to believe that our experiences are not unique.

What amazes me is that even in the age of the internet, when one can use sites like Edmunds to figure out what to pay for a car, dealers start out by assuming that the consumer is stupid, hope they get an absurdly marked up price, and only get reasonable when they find out their customer actually knows something.

Elon Musk is a visionary in many ways.  With the Tesla, he might make two important contributions--he might free  from petroleum, and he might free us from car dealers.

Crisis can be overcome with the energetic rehabilitation of the houses

Legambiente: "Is it possible to activate 3 billion euro of investments and 120,000 jobs per year"

Rome - The crisis can be overcome by the eco-renovation of houses and buildings thanks to which, according to Legambiente "can be activated 3 billion euro of investments and 120.000 jobs per year". For this reason, the Italian environmental organization has proposed - during a conference organized together with AzzeroCo2 - "a new system of incentives for energy improvement that allows to halve fuel consumption in the condo buildings".

"In light of the current situation emerges," according to Legambiente, "the need for new policies that may trigger a widespread  upgrading of the energy efficiency in buildings". With an eye especially for apartment buildings, where live about 24 million people in Italy and where very often the energy consumption are higher than the already high national average, especially if built after the 50's. According to estimates by Istat and Cresme, exists more than one million buildings with more than five rooms in which there is a condominium management. And, unfortunately for those who live there, hopes to reduce spending on energy bills are very few, given that the existing mechanisms are ineffective and often impossible to implement".

The aim of Legambiente is an average reduction of 50% of the housing consumption, certified by skipping energy class; based on a simulation carried out on condos in Milan, Rome and Bari average return through incentives varies between 31 and 36%, there would be a benefit in the bill and in the comfort both winter and summer, in addition, depending on the intervention, there could be a reduction in heating bills by about 50% within a maximum of 11 years for an amount that varies between 800 and 1300 euro per year.

According to Legambiente is necessary to introduce a new system of incentives that may apply in particular to condominiums, which offers a real possibility of reducing energy expenditure for families and at the same time attack the bulk of the energy coming from the building. "The model to look at is that of the Green Deal introduced in the UK, which allows the creation of interventions at no cost to families to pay for themselves with the savings made in fuel consumption," says Vice-President Edward Zanchini. "To realize these projects in Italy, in our proposal, they would Esco (Energy Service Company, ed) and construction companies, which could see from this scenario, a way out of the crisis in the sector."

"The interventation spaces to make our buildings more energy efficient are very broad, as shown by all the studies known," added Beppe Gamba, President of AzzeroCO2. "The economic obstacles that today's families have to carry out operations of this type can be overcome, and also creating good jobs, with the widespread intervention of the Esco that invest in their own and recover the investments with the savings made in the bill. But why is this virtuous cycle can spread requires new tools and a guarantee fund for loans to businesses. We are confident that the new Parliament will be able to tackle these issues in a constructive way".

< Source: CercaCasa.it >

A metaphor for why Goodness of Fit tests are, well, not very good.

I am proud to say I learned my econometric from Art Goldberger, who had little use for R-squared.

Anyway, a smart friend of mine (who works in industry and therefore might not want to be named) pointed out that he could probably fit the brushstrokes of a Jackson Pollack painting with a 17 degree polynomial and get an excellent R-squared.  But he still couldn't predict what a next brush stroke might look like.

A painting by Morgan Green

Reposting from my Forbes blog: the debate on Debt and GDP

My two cents:

Within the past day or so, economics conversations have been all about Rogoff and Reinhart and their critics, Herndon, Ash and Pollin.  The Rogoff and Reinhart (RR) paper purported to show that countries with more debt grow more slowly than countries with less; Herndon, Ash and Pollen (HAP) show that Rogoff and Reinhart’s data contains mistakes, and there is not much dispute about whether Herndon, Ash and Pollin’s corrections are right–they are.

HAP also do a pretty good job of showing that connections between debt to gdp ratio are not robust–they are sensitive to time period and country.  But they do not ask the question about direction of causality between debt and growth (page 3):

For the purposes of this discussion, we follow RR in assuming that causation runs from public debt to GDP growth. RR concludes, “At the very minimum, this would suggest that traditional debt management issues should be at the forefront of public policy concerns” (RR 2010a p. 578). In other work (see, for example, Reinhart and Rogo (2011)), Reinhart and Rogo acknowledge the potential for reverse causality, i.e., that weak economic growth may increase debt by reducing tax revenue and increasing public expenditures. RR 2010a and 2010b, however, make clear that the implied direction of causation runs from public debt to GDP growth.

But the question of direction matters a lot.  Consider a country whose GDP weakens–both tax revenues fall and social spending (on things like unemployment insurance) rises.  This means that in the absence of a policy change, weak GDP leads to higher debt.

There is a simple way to take a first cut at the question of direction of causation–by using a technique known as Granger Causality.  The set up is to try to explain something (such as GDP growth) by looking at its own lagged values and the lagged values of another variable (such as debt-to-GDP ratio).  I took the  data set in Herndon, Ash and Pollen and ran Granger tests using one lag explaining real GDP growth and debt-to-GDP ratios; I ran separate regressions for each country in the data set. I tested for significance at the 90 percent level of confidence.  I am happy to share my results with anyone who is interested (richarkg@usc.edu).

In the tests where I was exploring whether debt-to-GDP “caused” GDP growth, I found that debt’s impact was negative in five countries (Austria, Germany,Italy, Japan and Portugal); positive in four countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway), and zero in 11 countries (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the UK and the US; although France was close to being statistically negative).

RR emphasize that there is a critical point at which debt becomes toxic, and that is at a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 90 percent.  Doing Granger tests using this variable (on “on-off switch” for a country being at greater than 90 percent), we find that the impact of greater than 90 percent debt on GDP growth is positive in two cases (Australia and New Zealand), and is not statistically different from zero in eight cases (Belgium, Canada, Greece, Ireland, Japan, the UK and the US).  Ten countries have not had debt-to-GDP ratios above 90 percent.

When we look in the other direction, however, the impact of GDP growth on debt is negative 12 times (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, and Sweden) and is not statistically different from zero in the eight other countries (Canada, France, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, the UK and the US).  Reverse causality IS a big issue here, and until it is really sorted out, we can’t say what the true, structural relationship between GDP and debt really is.

The eclipse of real estate

Is the end near ?

In the first quarter of 2012, direct investments in real estate in the world fell by 21% compared to the same period last year. The data have been published by the Consulting Agency Jones Lang Lasalle; the flow of global capital allocated to the sector decreased despite only in the USA there has been a 

+25% and +52% in Canada in the year. Poor performances for Europe, Asia and Middle East.

According to Juan Manuel Ortega, director of capital markets for Jones Lang Lasalle Spain, "this year will be dominated by the reactions of governments to the continuing economic uncertainty, subject to international investors continue forward. We also anticipate that the continued deleveraging banking attract more capital funds seeking opportunities in debt and assets used in the U.S. and Europe."

At the level of large investments the offices market is the one that pulls the rest, with a 54% of the total. Also the industrial sector showed improvement, while the residential is the worse.

< News source: ElConfidencial >

< Image source: http://randomtechie27.deviantart.com/art/Eclipse-303550050 >

Unrestored homes purchase +83%. Fashion is a ruin

The new trend of real estate, ruined houses for a market in crisis

They are called fixer-upper, more commonly slums, houses in poor condition sometimes to be rebuilt almost from scratch are the latest trend when it comes to real estate in New York.

The trend is becoming increasingly popular due to the decline of the houses on the market and lower prices of the houses in ruins, convenient despite the costs that the restructuring.

Jonathan Miller, head of the real estate firm Miller Samuel, told the New York Times that the purchase of housing conditions as "poor or very poor" rose in the City by 83% from December 2011 to December 2012.

"The properties for sale in Manhattan fell by 34% from the fourth quarter of 2011 - said Miller - touching its lowest level for 12 years now, and that's why those who want to buy a home has become more flexible."

Some giants of real estate, as Corcoran and Brown Harris Stevens, who first proposed not to customers homes in poor condition have decided to change its policy.

And search engines are emerging as RealDirect.com that allow users to perform ad hoc research, entering as keywords terms 'unrenovated', ie not refurbished, and 'needs work', needs restoration.

"Many people, especially in recent months, prefer a place to rebuild from scratch, a home created by them one hundred percent rather than made according to the tastes of someone else" said Doug Perlson, CEO of RealDirect.

Among those who chose to marry the new philosophy there are, for example, Laura Jacobs, a writer, and her husband James Wolcott, cultural critic for Vanity Fair.

The couple decided to buy a house for $ 750,000 in Washington Heights after selling the apartment where they lived for 1.36 million dollars.

"We knew that we would have spent at least $ 200,000 for the renovation, but the space was huge - they explained to the NYT - we were certain that the result would be what we wanted."

Even Corey Reese, attorney for Estee Lauder for nine years for rent in Chelsea, bought a 'slum' to turn on 24th Street, for $ 789,000,

"I saw an apartment in horrible conditions - he said - but I understood the potential: the view, the Art Deco style, the brightness. And finally - he added - the ability to have a real kitchen."

The Italian real estate market crisis, merciless numbers

Translation of an interesting article from the Italian web based newspaper Nove da Firenze .

The figures released by FIAIP are really discouraging: in Italy in the period 2007-2012 real estate sales were down by as much as 40%. In the past year house prices also showed a decrease of 12% (25% if we compare the average prices of the previous year with those of 2008.).

And common clichés that keep the industry afloat we have thought in the past few years the only luxury properties, and this both in Italy and internationally.

According to the findings in the recent MEETIN - a real estate meeting in Naples, for example, this assumption seems confirmed in the Southern Italy.

Over the last five years, sales and construction of new buildings have declined by 40%, sales of larger apartments and luxury properties in the most prestigious neighborhoods of Naples (Posillipo, Vomero, Chiaia) has instead maintained.

The same goes for real estate on the Sorrento coast, who have not registered even the declines in sales prices.

Of the first opinions in contrast seem to come from the Northern Italy, and in particular from Milan.

According writes Joan Valsecchi on Immobiliare.it News, it seems that even the high end of the market - which had not previously been the least affected by the crisis - is starting to feel a bit 'hit: properties of prestige of Milan in fact, would arrive at the cost 20-25% less than it was five years ago.

And if we can not speak of a real crisis, however, would seem obvious signs of some slowdown in the luxury market.

It seems that at this time the only ones who can afford the expense of a certain kind - we speak of digits that can even exceed € 19,000 per square meter - are entrepreneurs belonging to sectors that are resisting more to the crisis, such as fashion or telephone for example, or the super-rich from Russia or the Arab states.

To confirm the trend, in some way, there are also data published on 6 March by Osservatorio Residenze Esclusive (Observatory of Exclusive Residences), sponsored by Tirelli & Partners, and for the second half of 2012 in the cities of Milan and Rome.

According to these data luxury properties are struggling to find buyers, and so stretch of the days of sale.

According Casa24Plus for example, in Milan, for homes with a value of more than € 7,000 per square meter, the average selling now would exceed 16 months (in 2010 were less than one year).

We wanted to explore the question also heard the opinion of Dimitri Corti, CEO of Lionard Exclusive Real Estate, a Pistoia (Tuscany) estate agency specializing in selling luxury real estate in Italy.

According to D. Corti there is not actually a real braking because the Italian sellers are basically willing to consider offers also much lower, while still allowing you to get to the final sale.

Confirms instead the fact that buyers come almost exclusively from countries such as Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Kazakhstan.

We are then told that Tuscany is by far one of the most sought after, not only in Italy but also in the whole Europe.

Please follow me to Forbes

I am at http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardgreen/2013/03/13/california-has-a-shortage-of-rental-housing/.

Greece for sales: Athens sells 28 public buildings.

Among the buildings, offices of ministries, public bodies and the police headquarters.

After months of unnecessary delay, which among other things are often caused irritation of the representatives of the international creditors of Greece, the National Agency for the Promotion of Property of the State (Taiped, privatization agency), has announced yesterday the international tender for the sale and leaseback by the state, 28 state-owned buildings that are now offices of government departments, public bodies and even the police headquarters in Athens.

Properties for sale will be divided into two groups of 14 properties each, while the total rents that derive, according to the Taiped, will amount to approximately 30 million euro per year. The time for submission of tenders from interested parties expires next April 19.

With regard to the period of leaseback,the State may recover any property at the market price after about 20-25 years. According to officials of Taiped, the problem for the sale of real estate is not a lack of buyers willing to invest, but the fall in prices, as the sale comes at a time of severe economic crisis that has already caused a serious decline in the value of the property .

As financial advisors have been appointed to the Taiped Alphabank, the Eurobank Equities Investment, the National Bank and the Bank of Piraeus.

Why not worry about the deficit right now?

Because if I did my math right, Federal Government interest payments are at a long-term low relative to GDP. [Update, after looking more closely, I see that the source of the data--the US Treasury--includes state and local interest payments as well]. Consider the chart below:

Federal Government Interest Expense on Debt Outstanding Relative to GDP

The numerator is annual Federal Government interest payments, which come from here.  I am pretty sure these numbers are in nominal dollars.  The denominator comes from the BEA, and is in nominal dollars. Years are fiscal years.

Note that interest rates would have to double for us to be in the situation we were in the late 1980s, the end of the (ahem) Reagan Administration.  Do we ultimately need a steady state in which debt to GDP doesn't rise?  Absolutely.  Just not tomorrow.

Thud of the real estate market in Paris, shaking the prices of the safe of Europe



Is the future of Paris grey ?

Storm signals were on the horizon but the final amount were worse than expected. "Home sales in Paris, one of the world safest real estate markets, have fallen by 21% in one year" makes known the Chamber of Notaries of the Ile-de-france.

Throughout the region the decrease compared to 2011 was 13%. Is therefore just the capital to suffer the most, so that prices historically high and untouchable, begin to give little signs of abating. In one year the costs are decreased by 1%, but with a tendency to get worse. The square meter value is still really expensive with and average of  8270 euro even for normal houses, not luxury villas or castles.

According to data provided by notaries have been sold in the capital only 27,690 units. In the entire region instead the amount was 150,000. Of course, the proportion between the city and the common metropolitan area of Paris explain the difference, but the question remains: is this the end of the age of investor confidence or just an isolated incident?

In the Ile-de-france region lists value decrease was 1, 4% and the average price is now certified on 5510 euro per square meter. More convenient values 3,130 euro per sq m, are located in the so-called Grand Couronne .

The bigger houses? Are the Australian's

Australians have bigger

The United States are famous for their architectural excesses: the boundless city, towering skyscrapers, monumental houses. We also saw that the U.S. can boast at least six of the ten most expensive homes for sale in the world. But it is news not too long ago that Australians have escaped the "cousins" Americans another record: that of the larger houses

According to research commissioned by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia National Institute of Statistics, for the first time in ten years the Australian houses of new construction have been awarded first place in the ranking of the larger houses in the world, thus relegating the new constructions American second 

The survey, conducted on individual homes and apartments completed in 2008-2009, shows just how the amplitude of Australian homes have increased by 10% in ten years, reaching an average of 214.6 square metersIn second place are the new American households, whose average size is decreased from 212 square meters to the existing 201.5 square meters. 

 Follow the case of New Zealand with an average of 196.2 square metersIn Europe, the larger homes can be found in Denmark (137 square meters, data Policy Exchange 2005), which in fact occupies the fourth position in the world rankings prepared by CommSec. Italy is the second lowest, with an average of 81.5 square meters.  English are the lowest (76 sqm).
 
If so Australia has the biggest houses in the world, which areas are the most important sizes? The national ranking is headed by the state of New South Wales (NSW), where the new buildings completed in 2008-2009 have a surface average of 262.9 square meters. For those who prefer smaller homes, the recommended destination is Tasmania, where the average size of new construction is "only" 190.6 sqm. 

The American People agree with George Orwell

This video presents what the American people consider to be the ideal wealth distribution.  At 2:47, the narrator notes that under this ideal distribution, "the wealthiest folks are about 10 to 20 times better off than the poorest Americans."

George Orwell in Why I Write:

2. Incomes. Limitation of incomes implies the fixing of a minimum wage, which implies a managed internal currency based simply on the amount of consumption goods available. And this again implies a stricter rationing scheme than is now in operation. It is no use at this stage of the world's history to suggest that all human beings should have exactly equal incomes. It has been shown over and over again that without some kind of money reward there is no incentive to undertake certain jobs. On the other hand the money reward need not be very large. In practice it is impossible that earnings should be limited quite as rigidly as I have suggested. There will always be anomalies and evasions. But there is no reason why ten to one should not be the maximum normal variation. And within those limits some sense of equality is possible. A man with Ј3 a week and a man with £1,500 a year can feel themselves fellow creatures, which the Duke of Westminster and the sleepers on the Embankment benches cannot.

Real Estate, optimism back with the Web: digital relocation

The new web frontier of real estate market, the dedicated real estate search engine

According to a survey, the benefits in terms of efficiency of the use of the Web for real estate portals are characterized by rapidity in providing timely information to customers, the ability to keep up with the competition and meet the demands of the market with significant time savings and money.

 

The web marketing can very well replace the obsolete forms of traditional advertising, such as newspapers and magazines, which in addition to being inefficient, requiring large amounts of money.

From the point of view of the purchasers, not only are praised all the characteristics of a digital communication, but also the speed to be able to take advantage of an estate portal in order to submit their ad, to be viewed also from a wider range of customers and international at affordable prices.

 

With the increasingly widespread use of search portals property changes the relationship with the customer that easily with one click can search for the home of your dreams in all parts of the world.
 

The advertisements have all the necessary information accompanied by images and videos so as to provide all the details needed for a distance vision.

The popularity of smartphones, tablets and laptops has facilitated this type of interaction, and to guarantee the freedom and time savings potential customer.

 

An excellent example of real estate search engine comes from Italy with Cercacasa.

 

Cercacasa.it is the first professional portal for the promotion of the buildings designed and built by real estate professionals and also managed according to the logic social oriented. A portal opened to the potential of Web 2.0. Experience of more than 12,000 industry professionals get the most innovative solution for the management of its real estate reality and integration with fellow real estate agents located throughout the world, which will allow you to quickly find a property meets your needs.

 

The site was created under the auspices of Fiaip, Italian Federation of Professional Real Estate Agents, which has always worked to make more ethical and transparent real estate market.

Tips for Buying Real Estate Online

The Internet has changed modern life in many ways, including the way that people buy and sell real estate. From real estate broker websites to personal blogs on real estate, there is tons of online information for potential buyers to utilize. Though most people already use the internet to search for homes listed for sale, there are some other things that can be done to get even more value out of shopping for real estate online.


Compare Homes

Online shopping allows people to compare homes side by side from the comfort of their own home. Though nothing replaces an actual property viewing, an online look at a home is a low stress environment that allows buyers to view the home without the pressure of a broker or other shoppers. The Internet also allows buyers to simultaneously look at similar homes in various areas. For example, an internet shopper can search for and compare all of the three bedroom homes with-in a 15 mile radius of his or her work.

Neighborhood

A residential or commercial real estate property is only as good as the neighborhood that surrounds it. The Internet allows a buyer to quickly learn about the neighborhood in which a real estate property is located. For example, a buyer can learn about the crime rate, the quality of area schools and the proximity of local stores and restaurants. Online mapping programs can even allow a remote buyer to view the local area from another location.

Research Values

There is often a vast difference between the asking price of a home and the actual selling price of a comparable home. An online shopper can quickly look up information on past selling prices for similar properties before viewing a home. With a smartphone, a buyer can even look up these prices while at a home or in a real estate broker's office. Having this information on hand at all times can help the buyer to negotiate the best deal possible.

Networking

The Internet allows a person to share information quickly and easily with people that they know. By posting on a social networking site that a person is interesting in buying a house or other real estate property, the buyer will let everyone know that he or she is in the market. This can help the buyer to uncover reel estate that is not yet listed, motivated sellers or for sale by owner properties that are often missed through traditional real estate searches.

Loan Acquisition

One of the most important parts of shopping for real estate is qualifying for a loan. The Internet provides shoppers with access to lenders all across the country that can best meet the buyer's unique needs. For example, a buyer with credit problems can use the Internet to find mortgage lenders willing to work with him or her to qualify for a loan. A buyer with good credit can also use the Internet to find the best deal on a mortgage loan which can result in thousands of dollars of savings over the life of the loan.
More information, please visit :

About Dubai Real Estate 2013

2012 will always be credited as a year of celebration, optimism and robust recovery in the history of Dubai real estate as it brought various good news related to the performance of this sector. Local and international investors, who had lost confidence on Dubai realty sector after economic crunch, flew back to Dubai to complete several property transactions during the previous year. The sector's growing performance also impressed and encouraged newbie investors to enter into the sector with renewed confidence. Property prices, which had fallen by more than 50% during the course of 4 years since 2008, finally showed an upturn during 2012.

Performance highlights of 2012 revealed that the prices of villas and apartments have increased by 21% and 7-8% respectively. This increase predicts a prosperous future and can pave the way for robust recovery ahead in 2013. However, there some are experts who believe that re-inflating property prices and launching of grand property projects has its own set of risks. As per these experts, officials and developers should adopt a cautious approach otherwise the recovery will be slowed down in 2013. Let's discuss the factors that are slowing down the process of recovery in Dubai real estate sector.

Oversupply!

Residential real estate sector of Dubai will continue to experience an upturn in 2013 but the growth pace will be slower compared to 2012 due to the delivery of a number of residential projects across Dubai. With various property projects at different secondary locations, the recovery is expected to extend to wider areas of Dubai, which was previously limited to only prime neighbourhoods. At the same time, around 50,000 property units will be added to the supply line in the coming three years. It may not make some difference now but the fact is that Dubai is already under the pressure of oversupply. More property projects in secondary locations may lead to a decline in the rents or property prices, which can also affect rents and prices Dubai property for sale in posh areas.

Grand Property Projects are Back!

With stability in rents and sale prices of Dubai properties in the year 2012, 2013 is predicted to be a year of robust recovery and Dubai has also rediscovered its appetite for grand and gigantic property projects. Projects like the replica of Taj Mahal, the world's biggest Ferris Wheel and the expansion of Dubai Mall, to name a few, are in queue. One should not forget that Dubai is still struggling hard to come out of the bust and shake-off its effects so the strategy to impress the world with the world's largest, tallest or biggest buildings should not be adopted right now. This strategy led the UAE real estate sector to the verge of bankruptcy in 2008.

Over Confidence!

2012 has revealed that property transactions were 49 percent up compared to the number of transactions that took place in 2007. At the same time, 70 percent property purchases were made using cash as buyers avoided mortgage in 2011. Most of these investors were the ones who had adopted "wait and watch" strategy and invested their money in Dubai real estate sector only when they were absolutely sure that the time was right.

As per the current situation however, it can be said that the forecasting growth based on these statistics is nothing more than overconfidence, which can adversely affect the sustainable growth of the sector in the upcoming years.

If Dubai government and officials will take a cautious approach, not only will the sector recover fully in 2013 but it will also achieve its original highs.
More information, please visit : http://www.bayut.com/

London: Battersea Power Station reborn, boom of luxury homes

The building made famous
by '30s cover Animals Pink Floyd

It's the fastest selling real estate of this kind recorded in London. 

In four days were sold real estate properties with a total value of 600 million pounds (nearly € 724 million) in the converted historic Battersea Power Station, the one with four colossal chimneys, in the south-west of London, the largest brick building in Europe remained unused for three decades.  An interesting example of luxury homes building boom.

They lined up starting at 6:30 am, reports the British press to grab a seat, large or small, preferably overlooking the River Thames, as this may become one of the largest urban corners 'cool' of the "new London" .

The building is considered one of the best examples of Art Deco architecture in the '30s and was made famous by the album cover of Pink Floyd's "Animals" of 1977, the one with the pig flying between the white chimneys of the plant.

The sale is open on Thursday and by Saturday had already been purchased all 600 units made available on the 800 in the project. From studios to 340 thousand pounds (415 thousand euro) in the attic of 6 million (over € 7 million). And the buyers belong to different classes: the bankers of the city to a former employee of the power plant. The company that operates the store is sure that soon all the 800 apartments will be sold, and in 2016 will begin the first tenants to live there. In fact, for the moment everything is on paper: the site has not yet been started, should start in the summer, but the project was assigned Uruguayan architect Rafael Vinoly and funded by a Malaysian company, it really makes my throat. 

The plant has stopped producing electricity in the early 80s and since then the industrial complex was designed for different locations, a Disneyland at one stage. To protect them, the four chimneys will be extracted and stored separately during the work. The conversion also foresees the creation of green spaces, swimming pools, gyms and commercial spaces, which will be used up to 15 thousand people. The enthusiasm did remove checks for Battersea Station Pawer the experts also explain the sudden increase in real estate costs and the coincident lack of housing in the surrounding areas such as Kensington.

Asia, solid investor optimism in the housing market

Asia, solid investor optimism in the housing market

From the Real Estate Market Survey of RICS Global Commercial fourth quarter shows that the real estate market of northern Asia remains solid. In particular, China, Hong Kong and Japan have shown a sharp rise in sentiment in the rental market and investments. The Survey indicates, however, a more negative trend for the Singapore market, with some key indicators that showed further deterioration.

China

In China, demand for rentals has risen slightly after the slowdown in the third quarter, with net income up to +20. The availability of space is increased. Although expectations on rents remain on a positive territory, the increase in new construction will affect sull'outlook rents in the future. Even the confident investors saw a marked improvement, with a sharp increase in demands and expectations of transactions. The increased appetite for investment is spurring expectations on the capital value.

Hong Kong

In Hong Kong, the requests for rent have recovered at a faster pace in the fourth quarter. The space available has increased but not enough to weaken the outlook rents. Rising demand continues to support the expectations on the values ​​of rents. In terms of investments, the trend is more positive. There was a strong rebound in investment requests, with a net balance rising to +52. The investment market for commercial real estate has benefited by implementing further tightening measures, including stamp duty for buyers and a number of Special Taxes Stamp sales of residential apartments which came into force last October. This has contributed to a sustained rise in inflows of investments in commercial real estate. The principal amount may continue to rise, as indicated by the most positive indicator on future transactions.

Japan

As regards Japan, the net balance of the request rents continue to rise and a faster pace than the available space. This results in a positive performance expectations on rental growth. Investments in commercial real estate remained positive compared to other asset classes volatile, lower efficiency. Investors are increasingly attracted by the commercial real estate market, with the upward trend in investment requests and expectations on future transactions. However, the most promising developments in the investment market have not yet fully impacted the value of capital, which for the moment remains stable.

Singapore

In Singapore, the demand for space in the fourth quarter weakened again, given that the net balance fell further to -38. They grew still spaces available. The outlook for the rental growth has deteriorated further. However, on the investment front, the picture is more favorable. Specifically, investor demand remained strong while expectations on future transactions rose further. In fact, the indicator of the capital value expectations remained positive due to increased appetite for risk.

Six million euro for a castle in Bavaria offered for sale by Porsche

Schloss Bullachberg

When an investment becomes unproductive is the case to discard it and so Porsche has decided to sell his castle in Bavaria, purchased in 2006, for six million euro. The automaker had in fact bought the castle, Schloss Bullachberg, close to Neuschwanstein Castle, the most famous of Bavaria, with the intention of turning it into a luxury hotel with 180,000 square meters. The idea was started by former president of the group Wendelin Wiedeking, but the renovations were never parties, and the company has now decided to sell it.

The automaker is due so retrace his steps after an investment property that proved to be too expensive.

Now the castle is for sale and given the environment fairytale may soon find the right buyers can turn it into a luxury hotel or a private residence by real king.

Real Estate, 5 Tips To Help You Save Foreclosure

There are lots of things that people don't know about the foreclosure process that can be extremely damaging and can mean the difference between saving your home and losing it if you don't get educated. If you are going through a foreclosure there are 5 key elements that you need to understand in order to prevent the bank from taking back your home.


Foreclosure! It can be a scary and an extremely frustrating procedure. There are confusing words and terminology used that most homeowners don't understand along with the mountain high stacks of paperwork being mailed and delivered to you on a weekly basis. It is enough to make you want to scream. The two most critical things you can do during the pre-foreclosure process is to constantly educate yourself and to keep in close communication with your bank. Below are 5 key items you need to know and understand about the pre-foreclosure process and how you can avoid it like the plague.

1. Understanding when the bank will move forward with the foreclosure. The easiest way to get this information is to contact them and find out what their guidelines are. When the foreclosure starts depends on the lender. Some will move forward with it after 90 days of not having received a payment. Other lenders will take longer. Talk to you lender and get informed about how to stop it.

A lot of it also depends on your commitment to work with the lender. If you can convince them that you are willing the work with them then they may not start the foreclosure process at all. Some banks will try and work out a solution that works best for you and your current situation. If you keep them up to date about what is happening with you, your odds will increase dramatically of getting a payment planned worked out.

2. Figure out the length of the foreclosure process in your area. It is different from bank to bank and again, the best thing I can suggest is that you call the bank directly to find this information out. Try and contact somebody directly in the foreclosure department. Some can get it done in as little as 21 days and others may take 6 months or more. It varies from bank to bank.

3. Find out if you have an alternative to foreclosure. There is more than one way to skin a cat and there is more than one way to stop a foreclosure. The options you have depends on your situation. This includes examples like what your debt on the house is, is your financial situation permanent or temporary, would you like to stay in the house or not. Speaking with the bank and a foreclosure attorney will assist you in deciding what your best available option is and how to solve your current situation.

4. Find the right person to talk to at your bank. This is something that may change throughout the foreclosure process. If you contact the bank before the property goes into foreclosure then you might talk to somebody in the workout department. If the property actually falls into foreclosure, then you will more than likely get sent to the foreclosure department. Stay in constant contact with your lender at all times and make sure you are dealing with the correct department at all times. It would be a total waste of your time if you start faxing paperwork and mailing information to the wrong department. If there is one thing I know about the foreclosure process it's that time is definitely not on your side.

5. Figure out what all the paperwork you are getting means. Throughout the foreclosure, you will be getting tons of letters and postcards from attorneys who work with the bank. If possible, hire a foreclosure attorney yourself so that you will know exactly what everything means. If it is not possible to hire an attorney, try and do some of the research yourself so that you have a better understanding of the meaning behind what you are getting. Having knowledge of what is getting mailed to you is vital to knowing exactly where you are at in the foreclosure process.
More information, please visit : http://www.StLouisHomebuyersLLC.com

Green Home Renovation Ideas

There are many houses out there, which are completely un-befitting in their environment and have been constructed with harmful synthetic materials. People, of course, have the right to buy a house which pleases or delights them, but what if the same house poses threat to their health and environment? This is the reason why today a growing number of people are renovating and upgrading their houses in an eco-friendly way. In fact, the numbers of companies, which specialize in producing and selling green renovation materials, have also increased significantly in the recent couple of years. The green products sold by these companies are not actually treated with toxic chemicals that can result in damaging consequences to the environment.


For instance, traditional paints that involved environment controversy for a very long time are now available with no VOC's. Nowadays, some companies even make insulation using recycled materials, like cork, bamboo, cotton etc. There are loads of eco-friendly materials being sold in the market, which can surely suit your individual requirements. Wood is another very important material in renovating a house. Green companies do make sure that the environment is not disturbed while harvesting trees. There are also other companies, which use recycled goods, such as plastics, for creating household construction products or items. Not many know that it is also possible to install kitchen counters made with the recycled paper.

When choosing the green materials for renovating your house, you would find lots of materials that are not only safe for the environment but also more durable and easier to maintain, as compared to the traditional renovation materials. As the markets for sustainable materials are lesser than the traditional materials, you may have to perform some extra online searches and look for a good building supply company to get what you are seeking. Apart from employing green home renovation materials and products, there are numerous other ways in which you can make your house environmentally sound. For example, for brightening up your house, you can install skylights that use the natural sunlight, rather than the traditional lighting which consumes a lot of energy.

You can use the solar energy, not just to heat your outdoor pools, but also the interior of your house. There are many companies out there which offer services to integrate the solar panels on the roof of a house in such a way that they seem like the normal roof tiles. These solar panels use the energy of the sun to heat the house and thus, contribute in considerably reducing the monthly electricity bills. In addition, replacing traditional windows with dual-pane windows, opting for natural insulation and choosing flooring options made from recycled materials, are all the ways to make your house environment friendly. Being eco-conscious and going for greener alternatives, while renovating one's home is the best way to support the "green movement". So, implement these green home renovation ideas and see what difference they make to your life.
More information, please visit : http://www.harjirealtors.com/sunny.php

Good for Greg Mankiw...

..for supporting marriage equality.

Why is the luxury housing market recovering so well?

The fashionable thing to say is because of foreign money.  I suspect the actual reason is that the one percent have gotten 122 percent of the recovery (h/t/ Tim Noah).

The demand curve for housing among the rich has shifted out.

Norway estate boom!

Norway big city skyline

The Norwegian regulators should impose more restrictive rules for the housing market compared to those in force abroad. This is because house prices and private debt have reached record levels, very different from those reported in the rest of the Old Continent. To make known, Bloomberg agency reported, was Morten Baltzersen, the number one of the Authority for the Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA) in the Nordic country.

"Our starting point is some concern for the growth of private debt and real estate prices in Norway," he said. And the measures taken will not be in line with the rest of Europe because - he said - the starting situation is very different.

 

To contribute to a lending boom of the families were very low interest rates, falling unemployment and rising wages in a country that is ranked fourth in the world for per capita income. And while the rest of the continent was gripped by the eurozone debt crisis, Norway real estate prices have gained 30% since 2008.

Last year, the authority has received from the Government with the task of drawing up new rules for the issuance of bonds, literally exploded since 2007.

 

A concern is the increase in the use of loans as collateral. Baltzersen preferred not to disclose details of the proposed agency, which will be presented in early March.

 

Another idea being considered by regulators mail is to modify the risk weighting of loans in such a way as to require banks to set aside larger capital reserves to protect themselves from losses, dampening the boom in the provision of real estate loans.

A nice sit-com to about real estate agents

"vendesi" - main actors

Often we have heard that real estate agents are not a profession "funny". Without a doubt, this injury was aggravated during a period of great difficulty of the real estate market like the one we are living because, as pointed out by a survey conducted some time ago in the United States own a real estate agent, the dislike of the category comes most of the time not so much the lack of professionalism of the agent or real character of the individual components, but the fact that the real estate broker represents for many the personification of dreams and expectations dashed. On the one hand those of the owner that he wanted to get a higher price (even if unrealistic) from the sale of your property and, second, those buyers who may be forced to give up the house they wanted or discount which had aimed .

That is why it really interesting experiment placed online these days by a couple of Italians real estate agents who, with the declared intention of making nice to the whole profession and to provide practical help and free to all those who are struggling with the purchase, sale or lease of a property, have created the first website dedicated to this Italian-com sector.

It is 10 episodes (for now only the first online) a small sit-coms, whose transmission is provided only via the web, through the dramatization of real events to the two professionals in their work, said some key issues in real estate transactions, such as the deposit, the energy certification or expenses.

Sit-com webstite: http://www.vendesi.tv/

The future of efficient transportation

Might look like this:

I heard a lecture from Alain Bertaud on how networked, scheduled transportation is not a good solution for many people--even in poor parts of the world.  And I can testify that auto rickshaws are often the best way to get around cities in India--they are quick, cheap, and when fueled by natural gas, environmentally not too bad (those with two stroke engines are a whole other matter).

One of the most provocative things I learned from Alain is that buses are often less fuel efficient than cars--for a bus system to work, they have to run at periods where demand is fairly low.     As it happens, while sitting at dinner in downtown Los Angeles last night, we watched bus after bus on 6th Street go by nearly empty.

Economy. Journey to the roots of the crisis, European banks have been up to?

a black cloud over the world

The chronicle and political force us daily to deal with words and concepts related to economic matters. Terms and expressions borrowed from the colorful jargon of finance or economic doctrine, have become commonly used on the basis of the violent changes in place for some years, but their meaning is often shrouded in the mists for those not into the matter.

TOXIC AND MALE INCOME SECURITIES

Never like today is very timely, as a result of recent developments in the case of European banks, hear about "derivative" investments classified as financial products created in 1920 and in the years to come, purchased by banks around the world. It should, however, do so clearly on the subject to understand what a derivative and by whom it has been used over the years by dragging the entire global financial system to the economic meltdown. The term "derivative" or "derivate" refers to a financial product identified as speculative title contains within itself a large number of subtitles at great risk. This appears to be the result of a finance called "creative" that produced disastrous effects on markets and financial centers defined strategic, among them New York and London. The already dangerous product itself has become devastating when it has approached banks behaviors unclear and even little lawful. And 'the beginning of the new millennium that some of codeste banks gave start to what today we can clearly define "economic decline". It all started with the U.S. such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, banks defined sisters, and the famous Lehman Brothers founded by two German brothers. Once again the "families" in American society are confirmed carriers of dangerous mishaps despite the same America you define in the eyes of the world, a big family.

So while Lehman Brothers was ordered by the General Court of the United States for misconduct in 2000, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac specializzavano in the supply of subprime mortgages, outstanding loans granted without receiving any guarantees in this regard. Only in the period from 2002 to 2006 's provision of these loans has increased from $ 38 billion to 90. U.S. banks to protect savers become true generating and sellers of "bad economy."

LEHMAN BROTHERS. OR THE TAIL OF THE DEVIL AND THE BIG STORY

Lehman Brothers is the name most frequently used in a negative way in economic history that goes from 2000 to 2008, a period in which the investment bank leading the United States will be declared bankrupt, September 16, 2008 due to insolvency, causing the biggest economic disaster of the financial crisis that has been recorded by the U.S. in 1929. This is despite Alan Greenspan, one of the best governors of the Central Bank of the United States, had cut interest rates the Fed at a record low of the last 45 years bringing the percentage of the one.

Events have also contributed to the fall of the world economy. The tragedy of the Twin Towers, September 11, 2001, and all outbreaks of wars that have resulted from it, have helped to drag the economy into the "financial storm". The term today is frequently used and is linked to the name of a Russian-born economist Nouriel Roubini, then unknown, but only predict two years in advance of the severe economic turmoil in September 2008. It 'just the story, with its disasters, to offer an additional side to creative financing and its toxic assets, effects of the derivative. With the destruction of the Twin Towers disappeared forever some of the best financial minds, settled just inside the two structures, which operated for commercial banks and monetary-financial companies with global interests.

Lehman Brothers and investment banks clones taking advantage of the special and delicate historical moment have flooded the market with additional financial toxic assets. E 'enough to consult the Federal Reserve data to verify the progressive and destructive course: the only period 2003 - 2007 subprime mortgages flowed from 332 billion to 1.3 trillion dollars.

GET THE CONTAGION

In the course of just six years, Lehman Brothers rises exponentially in the sale of toxic assets in the enterprise involving unscrupulous banks of the affairs of other countries. The follow Japan's Nomura, today all over the papers for the scandal MPS, and many other sisters triggering that effect "domino" that currently can be seen on all financial markets from Europe and overseas and levied in those dominated by market economy .

Lehnman Brothers & C generated children and stepchildren who currently do not enjoy good health at all, in fact, need rigorous treatment to prevent their evil becomes even more serious in fact causing a further deterioration of the state of the world economy.

The action of this perverse financial world has brought with him, like a tsunami, other illustrious victims, in the insurance and real estate. AIG, a leading American insurance company, declared bankrupt in 2008, is one of these victims. Martyr also its own insurance of subprime mortgages. Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers the current Governor of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke, Greenspan's successor, it was the protagonist of the first operation to rescue the U.S. economy measure in evaluating the $ 750 billion, a figure of fact, far lower than that of loans issued and never guaranteed.

Unjustifiable myopia

And European banks as they reacted to the crisis? The German, English, Irish, French, Spanish, Belgian and Dutch to avoid bankruptcy by toxic assets held in the financial statements have been nationalized or acquired by the State with the pragmatic consequences for the debt of sovereign states. In front of this mess is a question of obligation: "Where were all these years supervisory bodies of central banks and national banks?" Answers will vary, but none, absolutely none, can never justify what for many years has happened, is happening and will happen unfortunately.